This is a guest post written by Brenna Grant, Research Analyst with Canfax Research Services.

Cow prices seasonally decline 16.5% from July to November.  This year the drop was sharp happening all in September.  Prices have stabilized and even rebounded in recent weeks after dropping from $78/cwt in August to $64/cwt in October.  The October average was below year ago for the first time this year.  Prices have inched up to $65/cwt in November to be back above year ago levels.  Prices typically increase 16% from the November low to a spring high in March.  Given that part of the drop seen in September and the low October prices was due to the temporary closure of the Lakeside plant in Brooks, the increase from now to the March high is expected to be higher than typical at around 19% ($77/cwt). A higher spring price will be supported given (1) current prices are depressed with the Lakeside plant not having access to the US market yet, (2) strong North American demand for trim will support prices moving into the spring, and (3) smaller cow marketings anticipated in 2013.  Continue reading →